Systems, Games, and Behavior
Why doesn’t the overround alone guarantee success for a bookmaker? This post provides a mathematical and empirical analysis showing how bettors’ preferences shape the risk profile of the bookmaker’s profit.
Why do some companies fail to unlock the potential of A/B testing? I explore five overlooked conditions that hinder growth and how leadership can fix them.
A review of Verasight’s research on ‘Silicon Sampling’ and its limitations in market and political research.
The concept of simulating humans and human society has become a rapidly growing commercial industry. Powered by Large Language Models, a new wave of startups is emulating human behavior, decision-making, and culture.
A brief summary of the key findings from both sides of the debate on Large Language Model (LLM) social simulation: advancements in ‘silicon sampling’ and the boundaries of emulation.
How do bookmakers ensure they remain profitable regardless of sporting outcome? Discover the overround, the price-setting tactic that builds a house advantage directly into the odds.
Big game studios don’t just declare a winner and move on. They keep digging. Discover why optimizing a winning feature can double its impact and how small teams can do it efficiently.
